Below average rainfall predicted during wet season
HONOLULU — The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration this week released its outlook for the upcoming wet season (October 2023 through April 2024).
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that El Niño developed in the spring and intensified during the summer. The current El Niño is likely to peak as a strong event and continue into spring 2024 with a three in ten chance of a “historically strong” event (e.g. 1997-98, 2015-16).
– Climate model consensus favors large-scale below average rainfall through the entire wet season.
– Widespread moderate drought (D1 category) with embedded areas of severe drought (D2 category) to exceptional drought (D4 category). There is potential for more than 40 percent of the state to be in severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) by the end of February. The drought is expected to continue into the 2024 dry season.
– Sectors sensitive to short-term rainfall deficits likely to have the most severe impacts, including non-irrigated crops and pastures, and water supply systems utilizing surface water inputs and residents on rainfall catchment systems.
– Brushfires: “Out of season” fires due to continued presence of dry fuels and Red Flag days possible late in the wet season as the potential for stronger winds increases.
– Higher likelihood of large North Shore surf events, especially in January and February.
Much fewer heavy rain events are expected in the 2023-24 wet season, but citizens should still be prepared if an isolated heavy rain event occurs. A flash flood can still happen within overall drought conditions. For more information, visit:
NOAA National Weather Service Honolulu HI: https://www.weather.gov/hfo/
NOAA Weather Ready Nation: https://www.weather.gov/wrn/
NOAA Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
FEMA Flood Preparedness Information: https://www.ready.gov/floods
Hawaiʻi Emergency Management Agency: http://dod.hawaii.gov/hiema/
State of Hawaiʻi-DLNR National Flood Insurance Page: https://dlnreng.hawaii.gov/nfip/
U.S. Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Maps:
Dry season totals: https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/hydrosum/KauRain2023.jpg
Dry season % of average: https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/hydrosum/KauPctAvg2023.jpg